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However, robust evidence shows that people systematically overestimate the probability of positive future contingencies, and underestimate the probability of negative ones _ only those who are depressed or dysphoric come to accurate assessments.
Daniel Nettle
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However, robust evidence shows that people systematically overestimate the probability of positive future contingencies, and underestimate the probability of negative ones _ only those who are depressed or dysphoric come to accurate assessments.

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The fatal error of much science fiction has been to subscribe to an optimism based on the idea that revolution, or a new gimmick, or a bunch of strong men, or an invasion of aliens, or the conquest of other planets, or the annihilation of half the world--in short, pretty nearly anything but the facing up to the integral and irredeemable nature of mankind--can bring about utopian situations. It is the old error of the externalization of evil.